Aitor SG Mutation X Results

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  • #9509
    AvatarAitor
    Keymaster
    • Posts: 79
    • Administrator

    Since 21th March 2021 we are starting to test SG Mutation v2 variants. As you know, at this moment there are 7 variants: B1, B2, C1, C2, C3, D1 and D2. I am not going to say what variant am I running. The reason is that I don’t want to influence other people Each member of the group is choosing the one they like the most and maybe the fact I’m the admin could make some influence on other people’s choice and that’s why I will put variant “X”, and once we move to v3 variants I will disclose the variant I’m running.

    Strategy:  SG Mutation X

    Exchange: Binance

    Number of pairs: 3

    Pairs: USDT-BTC, USDT-ETH, USDT-BNB

    Trading Limit: 100

    Starting Date: From 21th March to 26th March (will continue)

    Before talking about the results, I want to clear that Binance and Gunbot calculate PNL on a different way. Let’s see an example. Suppose you buy coin A for 100$ and sell it for 110$. And then you buy coin B for 100 and you don’t sell it but the price drops to 70.

    In this situation, Gunbot will show your PNL = 10 and Binance will show -20. Why? Because Gunbot calculates PNL taking into account the trades that have been closed, while Binance calculates the value of your assets in USDT regardless you made 3000 trades or you didn’t make a single trade.

    Some people like the way the calculations are done by Binance and others like Gunbot calculatios. I will try to post both of them. In this case I will only share Binance PNL as the Gunbot version I’m running now seems to not update PNL (no worries, it’s a beta and new stable version is about to be released).

    So, let’s see Binance PNL for the period 21th March to 26th March:

    As you can see 4 days ended with loses according to Binance PNL calculations, and 2 days ended with profits. The net profit is +10,49$

    In the next post I will make some comments about it.

    Gunbot Shop - https://gunbot.shop

    #9511
    AvatarAitor
    Keymaster
    • Posts: 79
    • Administrator

    First of all I would like to remark that the way Gunbot calculates PNL would have shown much better results than Binance PNL does as Gunbot only takes into account the closed trades. Ok, the thing is, are the results good? Are they bad? Are what I was expecting?

    In my opinion, obviously we need longer periods to make any conclusion, but for me it’s a very good result despite Binance shows +10$ profit. Why do I think it? Because I have been trading with coins whose price had a huge drop and despite of that, it managed to get a little profit and get a much better entry price than the last one I got when last cycle started.

    If you take a look to USDT-BTC chart, you can see the last cycle started at around 58k$ and the new cycle started around 55k$. And we know that during the trip from 55k to 58k it will keep doing profitable trades, don’t we?

    In my opinion, this is something like I described for scenario 3:

    When BTC price goes down slowly, it gets a better average bought price and it gets rid of the bag with profit when the price bounces a bit, and at the same time starts a new cycle with a better starting point than the previous one. Note that the price never goes straight down or straight up, I mean, regardless the trend is upwards or downwards, the price is always bouncing up and down.

    We can see a similar behavior for ETH and BNB pairs:

    ETH pair with strategy SG Mutation X

    Gunbot Shop - https://gunbot.shop

    #9519
    AvatarAitor
    Keymaster
    • Posts: 79
    • Administrator

    After 1 week, profits are not huge, +42,96$ but considering the overall trend since I started is downtrend, the fact that BTC price dropped from 58k to 50k and it’s still around 2k below 58k price, I’m happy with the results.

    Anyway, I won’t be updating results on daily basics as 1 day means nothing and I want to focus on mid term, so I find it more useful to analyze bigger periods of time.

    Gunbot Shop - https://gunbot.shop

    #9534
    AvatarAitor
    Keymaster
    • Posts: 79
    • Administrator

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    #9549
    AvatarAitor
    Keymaster
    • Posts: 79
    • Administrator

    The following image shows the PNL of the last 30 days while testing one of the 1.0 variantions and one of the 2.0 variantions of SG Mutation:

    Gunbot Shop - https://gunbot.shop

    #9558
    AvatarAitor
    Keymaster
    • Posts: 79
    • Administrator

    I have set “Stop after next sale” to true for USDT-ETH as it’s quite close to its all-time high and from December to February made almost 4x. This parameter will make the bot to stop buying ETH after next sale. Maybe it can keep going up, but I don’t think the risk / reward is worth it for me at this moment. I will keep an eye on it and will add ETH back when I feel it’s a better time.

    Of course this is not an advise for anyone, I’m not an expert trader and I’m not here to tell anyone what to do with his money. I just want to report my results and my moves with the highest detail possible.

    As explained in the rules, we are looking for neutral results, without human intervention, but these kind of things (stopping a pair that made 3x in 2 days, or a pair that is very close to its all-time high after a recent huge raise) should be considered, in my opinion, basic maintenance.

    Gunbot Shop - https://gunbot.shop

    #9572
    AvatarAitor
    Keymaster
    • Posts: 79
    • Administrator

    Seeing that BNB reached to it’s all-time high and ETH was close to it, I decided to pause those pairs for a while and decide later what to do. So far I changed TL from 100 to 300 (assigning all the funds to BTC). I would like to add them back soon as they are more volatile than BTC and volatility is usually tied to profitability when running this strategy. It’s just I’m not a big fan of buying something while it’s in his all-time high price.

    This said, let’s take a look at Binance PNL:

    Gunbot Shop - https://gunbot.shop

    #9601
    Peter WarmerdamPeter Warmerdam
    Participant
    • Posts: 4
    • Novice

    The SG Mutation C1 variant is running at this moment for about a week and i want to share the results with you all.
    As you can see this is a profitabele strategie.

    For me an intresting thing about strategies is the fact if they can manage a dip of 15% or 25 % . Therefore i am calculating with about > 10 times a DCA.

    But the last week was more or less stable, and the DCA’s looks ok for me ( sometimes 2 or 3 times )

     

    I will keep you posted once a week, and after a few weeks the conclusion will be better because 1 week results looks promising , but the longer the time frame the better we understand the trend.

    #9607
    AvatarAitor
    Keymaster
    • Posts: 79
    • Administrator

    Thanks for sharing your results P.Warmerdam

    I recommend you to create your own thread, so we don’t mix results of different persons / variants.

    You could put the title: “Warmerdam SG Mutation C1 Results” for example, and it would be something like this:

    https://gunbot.shop/forum/topic/pete_winner-sg-mutation-d2-results/

    For me an intresting thing about strategies is the fact if they can manage a dip of 15% or 25 % . Therefore i am calculating with about > 10 times a DCA.

    Recently (from March 21 to March 26) BTC had a big drop, like 12%, and ETH dropped like 14% too. If I remember good, the highest DCA I saw is 6 or 7.  I have just noticed that BNB dropped from 275 to 225, that’s like 18% drop, and the bot handled it with 6 DCA. You can check it in the last pic of this post:

    https://gunbot.shop/forum/topic/aitor-sg-mutation-x-results/#post-9511

    Also note that:

    1- Continuous Trading (CT) helps to reach to deeper DCAs as it has 2 effects:

    a) It sells with partial profit when the price is below break even point. This way we can get some some extra base coins.

    b) Sometimes after a CT sell, the price keeps dropping and we move to next DCA. Example, we reach to DCA 3 and we buy 100, then CT sells 50 with profit and then we buy 100 in DCA 4. In this case We have spent only 50 in DCA 3 instead of 100, so we are leaving more funds for deeper DCAs.

    You can get more info about CT behavior in this thread:

    https://gunbot.shop/forum/topic/what-is-continuous-trading-ct-and-how-does-it-work/

    2- Each DCA level triggers at a different point. For example, imagine DCA 1 triggers when price falls 0.25% below last buying point, DCA 2 triggers 0.35% below DCA 1, DCA 3 triggers 0.5% below DCA 2… This is just an example with fake numbers but I guess you got the concept. If DCA 5 triggers when price dropped 10%, it doesn’t mean DCA 10 will trigger when price dropped  20% as the distance between each DCA increases compared to the previous DCA. numbers are not real

    Gunbot Shop - https://gunbot.shop

    #9616
    AvatarAitor
    Keymaster
    • Posts: 79
    • Administrator

    Added Uniswap coin. I have been trading with UNI, BTC and BNB and now only BTC and UNI so far. I’m looking to add back ETH and BNB soon.

    Gunbot Shop - https://gunbot.shop

    #9627
    AvatarAitor
    Keymaster
    • Posts: 79
    • Administrator

    I disabled BNB when it reached to 375 (ATH) and seeing it reached to 415 (new ATH) and dropped again to 360, I decided to enable it again, and it came back to 420 (new ATH). Now I disabled it again.

    To be honest, I’m not a big fan of keep making changes on the bot, it’s just I don’t like to buy something that is in his ATH, specially considering the crazy altcoin season we are living as in my opinion some alts are extremely overvalued and that scares me a bit. I’m not saying I don’t like BNB, I do, but in my opinion many people lose the perspective and think the alts will continue raising at this pace always and forever… and on 1st February BNB price was 45$. It was close to 10x in 2 months!!!

    At this moment I’m only running USDT-BTC and USDT-UNI

    UNI is being very volatile and the bot it’s taking advantage of that and making a lot of juicy trades. As you all know, 2 days ago there was a big drop and UNI was affected too.

    Despite the big drop, the bot is doing good and CT is doing its job. At this moment break even point is quite close, -0,61%, while BTC break even point is -1,81%. Hopefully both of them will be released soon.

    Two days ago Binance PNL had a red day. It’s normal as it only takes into account the USDT value of your assets. While today the bot managed to recover with profits:

    Gunbot Shop - https://gunbot.shop

    #9637
    AvatarAitor
    Keymaster
    • Posts: 79
    • Administrator

    Thanks to the reports shared by the people of the group, I already have an idea of how to implement the strong points of each variant into v3 variants. I’m already working on v3 variants and there should be ready within a few days. I will be the first one to test one of the v3 variants and once I feel it’s stable, we will start distributing v3 variants between the people of the group.

    New update:

    Gunbot Shop - https://gunbot.shop

    #9644
    AvatarAitor
    Keymaster
    • Posts: 79
    • Administrator

    New update: Doing very good. And I’m not even using 30% of my funds, as I want to be ready when a big drop happens, so I have enough funds to handle it.

    I will start posting results of a new v3 variant soon. Maybe this is the last update for this v2 variant? Maybe :think:

    Gunbot Shop - https://gunbot.shop

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